Emmy nominations drop tomorrow and the snub predictions are already flying

The 78th Primetime Emmy nominations land Wednesday morning US time, and for once the guessing game feels genuinely up for grabs.

Two shows are dominating the forecasts: Apple TV's Pluribus and HBO Max's The Pitt. Variety has Pluribus out in front with a projected 22 nominations, covering drama series, acting bids for Rhea Seehorn, Carlos-Manuel Vesga and Karolina Wydra, plus multiple directing and writing nods.

The Pitt isn't far behind, forecast for 21 nominations. That's a serious jump from last year, when the medical drama picked up just three acting nominations, for Noah Wyle, Katherine LaNasa and Shawn Hatosy. This time predictions have it collecting ten acting nominations across the board, including four supporting actress mentions and three supporting actor bids.

What makes this year interesting is how unpredictable voting has apparently been. When two shows are both tipped for over 20 nominations each, that usually means the acting and writing categories are stacked deep enough that something has to give, and somebody's fan base is going to spend Wednesday afternoon furious.

That's half the fun of nomination day anyway. The list itself barely matters until you cross reference it against who got left off. Every year there's a performance everyone assumed was a lock that simply doesn't show up, and the discourse around that snub often outlasts the actual nominee list.

Pluribus and The Pitt both earning strong pushes says something about where prestige TV is right now too: one is Apple's weird, ambitious sci-fi swing, the other is a grounded hospital drama that clearly hit a nerve in its second year. Neither is the kind of safe bet that would have topped predictions five years ago.

Set an alarm for Wednesday morning if you care about this stuff, or just wait for the inevitable "how did this not get nominated" posts to hit your feed by lunchtime. Either way, it's going to be a loud day for TV Twitter.